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THE OTHER OIL SHOCK Asymptotic Short Sightedness I love "asymptotic," the word. Maybe most people say "through the roof" or "scary growth" or "to the moon!" (Thank you Ralph Cramdon .) Here are some asymptotic graphics: See how those lines shoot up, faster and faster as time goes by? That's asymptotic, baby. Any fool can see that eventually they go almost straight up, right past disaster into the catastrophere . These are from a NYTimes online article about another pending disaster resulting from short term thinking: "Hydrocarbons bad. Biofuels good." Never mind the inevitable impact on the cost of food. Never mind that irreplaceable forests will be destroyed to plant more palm oil trees. Never mind that more people will starve and the net effect on the environment will be negative. Never mind thinking a little ahead of the nose on your face. (I guess I'm angry. Dang.) You faithful readers of the Duffst

We Are Smarter Than That! A friend sent me a fascinating PowerPoint presentation on how gas will probably hit $11 a gallon before too long. (It's from Mathew Simmons' Energy Investment Bank. ) I like it! Plus I'm dreadfully afraid it's true. So then after gasoline hits $11/gallon and natural gas $25 per MMBTU, water will go up, food following in lockstep. Minimum basic food will be entirely too expensive for a billion people to buy. So they will starve. Seriously, starve to death. Billion; that's a thousand millions. Puts earthquakes and Cyclones to shame. I liked the PowerPoint presentation, and I think that Simmons Energy is right. They point out that this is not all bad. The good side effect is declining hydrocarbon use - good for the climate. Still it's a painful way to get there. Well designed, fairly enforced government incentive programs for lower energy use might do the same thing without driving so many individuals and companies to ruin -