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Looked Like Horrible News. Now It's Great News! Our Daubers Were Down, but Then... I'm a Dauber, but I'm obviously UP! ... came the correction. Thank you Science! (Surely by now, you know this news has nothing to do with wasps, mud daubers or otherwise.) Here's the great news:                                                                                Covid Patients Testing Positive After Recovery Aren’t Infectious, Study Shows By  Heesu Lee  and  Jason Gale May 18, 2020, 9:15 PM MDT   Updated on  May 19, 2020, 3:19 AM MDT So those sailors on the Roosevelt, all those South Koreans and others who test positive again after recovering from Covid-19 didn't actually catch it again. They are (most likely)* now immune, and no longer infectious.   For a few minutes there, we all thought, "goodbye immunity," hello permanent coronavirus.  NOT! apparently . That (probably)* means a vaccine will work too.  So I s

Two Upbeat Bits of Pandemic News* 1. There is a new, 100% accurate antibody test & 2. T cells for COVID-19 ‘bode well’ for long-term immunity Once a sci-fi guy, always a sci-fi guy.  On March 29 I started saying stuff like this: 1. Give EVERYBODY the  antibody test  for Covid-19.       (and the virus test too) 2. Quarantine all positives. 3. Do comprehensive contact tracing. Quarantine all contacts. 4. Drop all social distancing for those with the "well and immune" antibody load. My Big Assumptions - Slightly ahead of reality So, there was no accurate, mass producible antibody test way back then (six weeks ago). I assumed there was, and I made the larger assumption that antibodies meant at least temporary immunity. That also had not been confirmed. My sci-fi sense was optimistic. These  Two Upbeat Bits of Pandemic News prove out those two assumptions! First the antibody test: Don't Bogart that... Looks like the super ac

May, 2003 Duff Cast His Sci-Fi Eye to the Distant Future May, 2020  * ( Honest. That was the day the piece was  first posted, and that was the predicted time. I promise I have not fudged the date. I reposted  it in 2011, adding some pictures.) It was about my fixation on inter-basin water movement to save the Western States. No More Floods, No More Droughts The Prediction That Ran Amuck May 2020     The Mississippi River is approaching flood stage in Illinois, Indiana and Missouri.  The Corps of Engineers monitors the levees and dikes with the giant web of depth gauges and flow meters.  The U.S. Weather Bureau is predicting major rainstorms in several of the watersheds.  Supercomputers are crunching trillions of numbers and putting options in clear graphical displays in front of Corps decision makers.   America The Beautiful ... The tale goes on about how America overcomes a looming environmental disaster. How Wrong I Was On.. . 1. We can still

So "Conservatives" Don't like a Pandemic Shutdown. Give me liberty, and some of us death! Neither do Bangladeshi Muslims. Never miss an important funeral! There is a powerful strain of the same - what? - disregard for the truth in health warnings?  Maybe it's a guy thing  (OK, there a a few women in the Austin demonstration, but mostly guys.) There are even old guys in both groups. BOFs; Brave Olde Farts. We know various Republican and Trumpster groups organized the U.S. anti-lockdown "spontaneous" rallies. Paid for by the likes of Betsy DeVos.  Not sure if anybody organized the Bangladeshis. Maybe the white cap manufacturers. Not sure why this strike me as ironical.

We don't need to Go Back to Normal We need to Go Back to Better   "Better" would mean:      Everybody who works full time will make a LIVING WAGE              A "living wage" means enough to COVER THE BASICS              "The basics" means THE NECESSITIES and a bit left over. "The necessities" means food, shelter, healthcare, education,  sick leave, child care, paid vacation, retirement contribution.              " A bit left over " means something to save, invest, give away, contribute, blow. Whoa!! The richest nation in the world can definitely afford  to assure it's workforce makes a living wage. We have to decide if that's what we want to do. The cost could be a reduction in profits for private companies and increase in costs of  non-profits.  The benefits could be a far healthier and more productive work force resulting in gains that pay for the expenses.  Which

A Ray of Hope in  A VERY credible source. This line caught my eye: " ... p otential utility as an effective antiviral against SARS-CoV-2" You can call me Novel Every week I read Science Magazine cover-to-cover.  It's one of the 'gold standard' journals.  The world's scientific research output is prodigious.  I find hope in that.     Put on your science specs and plow through this bit of promising research.  Abstract  Coronaviruses (CoVs) traffic frequently between species resulting in novel disease outbreaks, most recently exemplified by the newly emerged SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19. Herein, we show that the ribonucleoside analog β-D-N 4 -hydroxycytidine (NHC, EIDD-1931) has broad spectrum antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV, and related zoonotic group 2b or 2c Bat-CoVs, as well as increased potency against a coronavirus bearing resistance mutations to the nucleoside analog inhibitor remdes

Salvation of the Economy UP & RUNNING (Experimentally, of course) ...in one small, rich, Colorado town. Telluride The Original Big, Simple, Winning Plan (Click to read) 1. Give EVERYBODY the antibody test for Covid-19. 2. Quarantine all positives. 3. Do comprehensive contact tracing. Quarantine all contacts. 4. Drop all social distancing for those with the "well and immune" antibody load. I.e. kickstart the economy back into life. ) A wise decision by a government entity? Nah... Its tests are being donated by Mei Mei Hu and Lou Reese, a married couple who live part of the year in the county seat of Telluride and are executives at United Biomedical, a biotech company that developed the test. Full article in Medium-Elemental I'd say this is THE plan! Scott Gottlieb, MD, former Food and Drug Administration commissioner under President Trump, and Ezekiel Emanuel, MD, PhD, one of the architects of the Affordable Care Act und

Luxury Apartments.  Nice Balconies. Shelter in Place. NO JUMPING! Hang gliding would be OK.

Lots of Great, Modest Salary Jobs ..with LOTS of overtime I seriously  need a   raise. Be a Respiratory Therapist! * AND you can move to New York City!!  With 30- to-40,000 ventilators to operate, they are definitely hiring. Some OJT provided. Good luck on affording an apartment on $60K.   You'll need a bunch of roommates.  Oh, wait.... *Bureau Labor Statistics

GET AMERICA BACK TO WORK SAFELY Do THIS and beat Covid-19 UPDATE #2 --- 3.31.2020; 3PM MST YESSS!  The #3 below, "Test Everybody" with the ANTIBODY test is looking more and more possible. U.S. companies, labs rush to produce blood test for coronavirus immunity Full Reuters Story So now, this plan looks more and more practical. Super Strategy UPDATED 1. COMPLETELY EQUIP ALL HEALTHCARE WORKERS  2.  BUILD OUT OUR HOSPITAL CAPACITY 3. TEST EVERYBODY.  I ’ M TALKING EVERYBODY .. . WITH THE ANTIBODY TEST 4. PUT THE SURVIVORS WITH IMMUNITY BACK TO WORK (AND ASK THEM FOR ANTIBODY BLOOD) AND GIVE THEM A BADGE! A. Massive “Test everybody” with antibody tests .  Only the antibody test can prove you had it, got well and have the immunity. (The President would use the Defense Production Act to command the production of 350 million antibody test kits, set up big automated testing labs, etc.)* B. Give a “badge” to everyone who had covid-19, got

YOUR LIFE STORY (If you go on a ventilator) * (...and if you’re a man,) (...and if your problem is something other than coronavirus,) (...and it’s data from 1993,) (...and coronavirus may be worse than your average acute respiratory failure bug,) (...and ventilators are better today than in '93.) But HEY, it’s better than no info at all!  Buckle up, this ride is about to begin. You are super critical (very low blood oxygen levels, pressurized oxygen not working) so… You get intubated with a high-tech ventilator , mechanically assisted breathing. You have a 62% chance of living long enough to have the tube removed and be “weaned” from the ventilator. [38% chance of dying, pre-weaning] If you lived, you now have a 46%  chance of living until they release you from ICU into the general hospital population. If you made it through that , things are looking up. You have a 43% chance of living until you are discharged. THEN you have a